Group seminar on 14. June, 14:15 CET

Insights into Hurricane Isabel

Mailin Samland

In September 2003 an intense hurricane named Isabel was on its way towards North America. On 12 to 14 September Isabel was at or near a category-5 hurricane. Isabel’s lifetime made it possible to collect an uniquely comprehensive dataset, including in situ aircraft data and dropsonde measurements. These observations have brought new insights into the inner structure of such intense storms. The results were published in several papers and the seminar is based on two papers in BAMS, DOI:10.1175/BAMS-87-10-1335 and DOI:10.1175/BAMS-87-10-1349.

I will present the maximum potential intensity equation introduced by Kerry Emanuel and its application to Hurricane Isabel. Afterward I will explore the discrepancy between the estimated value and the observation, along with the 'turboboost' mechanism that might be causing this difference. Furthermore I will discuss key factors affecting hurricane intensity and at last I will take a look at the forecasts of Hurricane Isabel.