Group seminar on 01. June, 14:15 CET
A Possible Long Predictability of the Barotropic Component of the Atmosphere
General circulation of the atmosphere may be characterized by an energy flow of barotropization and zonalization. The barotropization is an energy flow from baroclinic to barotropic motions, which may be achieved by baroclinic instability to remove baroclinicity in synoptic eddies. The zonalizaion is an energy flow form synoptic eddy to zonal motions which may be achieved by 2D turbulence in barotropic component of the atmosphere. Therefore, we can construct a barotropic model by a proper parameterization of the baroclinic instability. It is found that the barotropic model so obtained on a sphere by the 3D NMF expansion shows very long predictability of 35 days for the perfect twin model experiments since the initial error does not grow in the barotropic model dynamics. In this case, the problem is not a chaos but a formulation of accurate external forcing for the barotropic model predictions. Formulation of the model and some experimental results on blocking and Arctic Oscillation will be presented in the seminar.