Group seminar on 20. April, 16:00 CET

Predictability: Past Present and Future

As alluded to in the title the seminar will consist of three parts. The past will trace the origins of predictability research from its roots in numerical weather prediction through the controversy surrounding predictability studies ignited prior to the First GARP Global Experiment (FGGE). The present will discuss the evolution of predictability ideas into the practical predictability estimates embodied in ensemble predictions and the development of the methodologies that are used in ensemble generation. Finally, the future will discuss how remnants of the controversy that arose during the pre-FGGE decade remain part of the unresolved aspects of weather predictability and is linked to other open questions such as the importance of moist processes and the role of gravity inertia waves in setting the ultimate limit of atmospheric predictability.