Online tropical cyclone predictions
Christoph Raible, Frank Sielmann, Klaus Fraedrich
Tropical cyclones are natural events with very destructive impact. On this webpage we present an empirical model which predicts the cyclone track up to 48 hours. The forecast scheme uses a self-adapting analog method based on several publications . The forecasts are presented for four different regions: atlantic, east pacific, west pacific, and australia. the input data, the prediction of the tracks, and the webpage presentation are obtained automatically every 6 hours (UTC). In this sense it is a operational working forecast scheme for tropical cyclone tracks. We present a model verification for each region separately using the years 1991 - 2000 as independent verification data set. Moreover a comparison between our self-adapting analog model and the official forecasts of the met office (still not available) and the bureau of meteorology australia are shown for the previous cyclone track for the lead time 12, 24, 36, and 48 hours.