Models
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| SAM | The Shallow Atmosphere Model (SAM) is based on the shallow water equations. SAM forms together with PUMA and the Planet Simulator a hierarchy of spectral global atmospheric models which are in use at the Meteorological Institute of the University Hamburg. It represents the simplest model in this hierarchy. SAM simulates the barotropic (vertically averaged) flow of the atmosphere while the effect of non-barotropic (baroclinic) processes must be parameterized in the model. |
The Portable University Model of the Atmosphere (PUMA) is a circulation model in Fortran-90 developed at the Meteorological Institute of the University of Hamburg. PUMA originated in a numerical prediction model that was altered to include only the most relevant processes in the atmosphere. It serves as a training tool for junior scientists, allowing them to work with a program that is easier to understand and modify than ECHAM. | ||
| PlanetSimulator | The Planet Simulator, a coupled system of climate components for Earth, Mars and other planets was developed as a model of intermediate complexity. It contains modules for the simulation of the atmosphere, ocean, sea-ice, and vegetation. The fast running model allows long simulations. All kinds of hardware like Linux-PCs, multiprocessor workstations and cluster are supported. See also: Forum for users and developers of Planet Simulator and PUMA |
Diagnostics
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| Climate long term memory: The figure shows the scaling exponent α of the fluctuation function for near surface temperature during the 20th century. The power spectrum is S(f) ~ f -β, β =2α-1. Data are available in inhabited areas and along ship routes. α is determined by Detrended Fluctuation Analysis in 4-15 years. | ||||
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| Cyclones in a warmer climate: Change of cyclone frequency in a warm (2 x CO2) compared to the pre-industrial climate (before 1860). Results from the AR4 A1B-scenario; numbers are frequencies for cyclone observations in (1000 km2)-areas (in %, local climate maxima 20%). |
Forecasts
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| Hurricane tracks: Tropical cyclones are natural events with very destructive impact. On this webpage we present an empirical model which predicts the cyclone track up to 48 hours. The forecast scheme uses a self-adapting analog method based on several publications. The forecasts are presented for four different regions: atlantic, east pacific, west pacific, and australia. the input data, the prediction of the tracks, and the webpage presentation are obtained automatically by a csh-script every 6 hours (UTC). | ||||
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| Probability of precipitation: A statistical forecast model using a combination of markov chains and multivariate regression has proven substantial forecast skill in the short-term range up to 24 hours. It is implemented as an operational model for precipitation and temperature forecasts on this webpage. The model produces forecasts in the 24 hour range for ca. 100 European weather stations. The forecasts are actualized every 6 hours. |
